Here’s another big vote to stress over. Six months ago, as Taylor Swift and Beyoncé released albums just weeks apart, it looked like we’d be gearing up for another Tay versus Bey Grammy Awards. Now, that’s one of the least interesting narratives of the 2025 ceremony. Instead, newcomers like Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, and Shaboozey have been the names on everyone’s minds — when they weren’t talking about Brat summer or the Kendrick-Drake beef.

All that new energy makes this Grammys one of the most interesting in years. Yes, Swift and Beyoncé will be nominated, as they always are, but there are now more wild cards than ever. With first-round voting already wrapped, and as we wait for the nominations (on November 8), let’s forecast who will be up for the biggest awards. I’ve broken each prediction category into three tiers:

➽ The Locks: Nominees we’re expecting to see and will cry “snub” if we don’t
➽ The Cusps: Nominees who most people will be looking for but might have a liability
➽ The Dark Horses: Nominees who could just as easily make a surprise showing or be forgotten

I’ve also included my final eight picks for each category in order of confidence.


Album of the Year

The Locks

Cowboy Carter, Beyoncé
Hit Me Hard and Soft, Billie Eilish
The Tortured Poets Department, Taylor Swift

So many heavy-hitters released albums this year, but there are only three records I’m ready to write in pen. Two are by the biggest pop stars on the planet, each coming off respectively record-breaking Grammy showings. And the third is by Billie Eilish, someone who the Academy treats like the biggest pop star on the planet — especially after awarding her a second Song of the Year trophy last year for “What Was I Made For?”

The Cusps

Short n’ Sweet, Sabrina Carpenter
eternal sunshine, Ariana Grande
Deeper Well, Kacey Musgraves
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, Chappell Roan
Brat, Charli XCX

There’s a world in which all eight of the AOTY nominees are solo pop(-ish) stars. It’s highly unlikely, though — even last year’s top-heavy group included Jon Batiste and boygenius to round things out. So if all these girls don’t make it, I’m leaning toward the ones who had the biggest moments. Chappell Roan was the most-discussed star of the year; Sabrina Carpenter used “Espresso” as a springboard for a breakout full-length; and you can’t talk about 2024 without bringing up Brat summer. Carpenter and Charli in particular are also cresting at the right time with Carpenter topping the charts and Charli dropping her Brat remix album during the voting period. They’re definitely surer bets than Ariana Grande, who appears to have moved on from eternal sunshine to promote Wicked. (Remember, positions previously missed in AOTY because … voters seemed to have forgotten about it a year later.)

The Dark Horses

Fireworks & Rollerblades, Benson Boone
We Don’t Trust You, Future & Metro Boomin
Scarlet 2 CLAUDE, Doja Cat
Radical Optimism, Dua Lipa
F-1 Trillion, Post Malone
Rockstar, Dolly Parton
Hackney Diamonds, the Rolling Stones
Where I’ve Been, Ain’t Where I’m Going, Shaboozey
Higher, Chris Stapleton
Only God Was Above Us, Vampire Weekend

Just how big of a moment are new artists going to have at the Grammys? While I struggle to see more than two newcomers cracking AOTY, if there ever were a year, it’d be this one, in which Shaboozey and Benson Boone also made massive splashes; each of their breakouts has centered around one hit song (more on those below).

And what about the elders? Dolly Parton and the Rolling Stones could both be contenders too, after ABBA earned nominations in 2022 and ’23 for their comeback. The Stones haven’t been a big Grammy favorite in the past, but the Academy has never met a bit of history it can’t revise (after all, those were ABBA’s first nominations). The Grammys have always liked Dolly, though, and her album Rockstar has a massive guest list of rock, pop, and country stars.

But if we’re talking genre pivots with massive guest lists, my money’s on Post Malone’s country entrée F-1 Trillion, which would mark his third AOTY nod in six years. Nominations for Malone and Beyoncé would also mark the first time two country albums have been up for AOTY. And while rap tends to be equally underrepresented in the album category, one of the biggest stories in music this year was the beef between Kendrick and Drake — and that started with a song from Future & Metro Boomin’s album.

 

My Picks: The Tortured Poets Department, Hit Me Hard and Soft, Cowboy Carter, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, Short n’ Sweet, Brat, F-1 Trillion, We Don’t Trust You


Record of the Year

The Locks

“Espresso,” Sabrina Carpenter
“Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar
“A Bar Song (Tipsy),” Shaboozey

The three songs that dominated the year, each in different ways. Even if “Espresso” never hit No. 1, you probably heard it more than any other hit. “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” did hit No. 1, for 15 weeks and counting, and while sampling J-Kwon’s “Tipsy” could be a mark against it, I think the country spin will charm old-fashioned voters. And Kendrick Lamar turned “Not Like Us” from a diss track into an anthem and remains the Academy’s favorite rapper (even if he’s never won in the generals).

The Cusps

“Texas Hold ’Em,” Beyoncé
“Beautiful Things,” Benson Boone
“Birds of a Feather,” Billie Eilish
“Die With a Smile,” Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars
“Good Luck, Babe!” Chappell Roan
“Fortnight,” Taylor Swift

Notice how I don’t have Taylor Swift as a lock. She’s always struggled a bit in Record of the Year — she’s been nominated only three times the past ten ceremonies, for “Anti-Hero,” “Blank Space,” and “Shake it Off,” all of which were bigger and better hits than “Fortnight.” I also have my worries about Beyoncé: “Texas Hold ’Em” hasn’t stuck around in the same way “Break My Soul” and Renaissance did. But unlike Swift, Beyoncé has a much stronger track record here — on top of being the most-nominated artist ever, she’s also the most-nominated in ROTY with eight previous appearances.

The Dark Horses

“Houdini,” Eminem
“Like That,” Future, Metro Boomin, and Kendrick Lamar
“We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love),” Ariana Grande
“Too Sweet,” Hozier
“I Had Some Help,” Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen
“Lose Control (Live Lounge Session),” Teddy Swims

Will Kendrick Lamar double up in ROTY? It’s unlikely, but not out of the question, considering “Like That” reigned for three weeks at No. 1 before “Not Like Us” dropped. But Post Malone — usually a sure pick here — could be fighting for just one nomination. Aside from Swift’s “Fortnight,” he’s submitting “I Had Some Help,” his runaway country hit with Morgan Wallen, who has never been nominated for a Grammy. (His song “Last Night” was up for Best Country Song last year, but Wallen isn’t a credited writer.) Another multi-week No. 1 with a pop co-sign will get even harder for the Academy to ignore, though.

 

My Picks: “Espresso,” “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” “Not Like Us,” “Birds of a Feather,” “Beautiful Things,” “Texas Hold ’Em,” “Die With a Smile,” “I Had Some Help”


Song of the Year

The Locks

“Please Please Please,” Sabrina Carpenter
“Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar
“Fortnight,” Taylor Swift

Submitting different songs for Record and Song of the Year is a gamble that rarely pays off, but I like Carpenter’s odds. While she’s entering her ear worm “Espresso” in ROTY, her No. 1 hit “Please Please Please” will be up in SOTY — avoiding the question of whether “that’s that me, espresso” is good lyricism and reminding voters that this newcomer had multiple hits in 2024. Jack Antonoff is probably happy about that move, since it could net him two songs in this category, alongside Swift and Malone’s “Fortnight.” Swift has always been a much steadier presence in SOTY, but she’s never won. While “Fortnight” is her weakest entry in years, if the Academy cools on her in AOTY, that could open a lane here.

The Cusps

“Texas Hold ’Em,” Beyoncé
“Beautiful Things,” Benson Boone
“Birds of a Feather,” Billie Eilish
“Too Sweet,” Hozier
“Die With a Smile,” Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars
“Good Luck, Babe!” Chappell Roan
“A Bar Song (Tipsy),” Shaboozey

After the Grammys pared these categories back to eight nominees last year, Record and Song of the Year had a remarkable overlap: five of the same songs were nominated, and a sixth nominee, Jon Batiste, showed up in each category for different songs. I’m expecting a similar result for 2025. Billie Eilish just bagged a second SOTY trophy, while Bruno Mars should easily show up in Record and Song for the first time since his 2022 wins with Silk Sonic. (So many past winners will make one-time nominee Hozier’s path to return harder.) Boone and Roan’s entries are also the sort of pop confessionals that voters prize here, and both have a bit of that retro sound that the Academy rewards. Sadly, I see that old-fashioned perspective keeping “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” off the slate — while it takes legitimate talent to flip an aughts party-rap song into a country hit, that’s never been the type of talent the Academy recognizes in SOTY.

The Dark Horses

“It Never Went Away,” Jon Batiste
“Now and Then,” the Beatles
“Houdini,” Eminem
“We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love),” Ariana Grande
“I Am Not Okay,” Jelly Roll
“Turn the Lights Back On,” Billy Joel
“Deeper Well,” Kacey Musgraves

I wouldn’t put it past the Academy to go for Billy Joel’s first song in 17 years or a “new” “Beatles” song. After Eilish’s Barbie win, a nod for fellow Grammy darling Jon Batiste’s own Oscar-nominated “It Never Went Away” (from his documentary American Symphony) also wouldn’t be out of the question. More than all of them, though, I like the odds for Jelly Roll, who’s broken through in a big way since his Best New Artist nomination last year, and is peaking at the right time with his new chart-topping album Beautifully Broken. That one will compete in AOTY next year, but for now, his single “I Am Not Okay,” which draws on his personal struggles with sobriety and mental health, could be a prime heartstrings pick.

 

My Picks: “Fortnight,” “Not Like Us,” “Please Please Please,” “Birds of a Feather,” “Die With a Smile,” “Good Luck, Babe!”, “Beautiful Things,” “I Am Not Okay”


Best New Artist

The Locks

Sabrina Carpenter
Chappell Roan
Shaboozey

All of these artists have higher hopes in the generals, but the floor starts at Best New Artist. Just don’t make me predict the winner yet!

The Cusps

Benson Boone
Megan Moroney
Teddy Swims
Reneé Rapp
Brittney Spencer

Even without nominations in the above categories, Benson Boone and Teddy Swims should make it in here off their hit-making alone. The rest of the field is wide open. Reneé Rapp was more visible for Mean Girls than her own music this year. Megan Moroney parlayed her 2023 hit “Tennessee Orange” into considerable buzz for her album Am I Okay?, but I still worry about her chances here, where breakout country artists often get forgotten (see: Lainey Wilson). If another country artist joins Shaboozey, I’m looking at Brittney Spencer, who’s already dueted with half the industry, will likely have the support of collaborators in the American roots field, and will get a bump from her Cowboy Carter features.

The Dark Horses

Sierra Ferrell
Raye
Sexyy Red
Beabadoobee
John Summit
Tommy Richman
Dasha
mk.gee

Sexyy Red has been making waves for over a year, but will voters take her as seriously as they did Ice Spice and Saweetie? Can breakout big-tent DJ John Summit rally electronic voters like Fred again.. did last year? How much will the rap field (where he’s competing) welcome declared non-rapper Tommy Richman? The most interesting case, to me, though, is mk.gee: an introspective rock singer and guitarist campaigning off the respect of elders like Eric Clapton. He’ll get votes from the alternative field, but if he can get some of the more traditional rock members behind him, he’ll go far.